The Pacers problem . . . it's complicated

It's just hard to know what to make of the Pacers these days. One game, like their Game 2 win over Atlanta in the playoffs Tuesday, and you think, hey they've got that early season juice going again. The next game, like Thursday's 98-85 loss in Atlanta, it looks like they've forgotten to how to shoot the basketball.
Oddly enough Thursday was one of those games where the Pacers were not actually playing that bad for the much of the night. They were holding Atlanta to under 40 percent shooting. The Hawks were getting no second shots and really it was the kind of ugly looking defensive game the Pacers have excelled at more often that not in the past couple of seasons.

Why Roy Hibbert has lost his ability
 to put the ball in the basket is a mystery
 the Pacers would love to solve . . . right now.

It's not unusual to hear coaches say that when a team shoots the ball well, it can cover up a lot of other shortcomings. It was kind of opposite for the Pacers Thursday. Consider at halftime, even though they were down a point, they had held the Hawks to 30 percent shooting, had outrebounded them by six and had seven turnovers, which is actually not that bad of a number for the Pacers. The problem was, they had shot just 37 percent themselves, and no matter how poorly the other team shoots, it's still hard to win games when that happens. Part of the issue too with the Pacers is that they had open shots, and in the case of center Roy Hibbert, point-blank open shots from within five-feet of the basket, but couldn't make them. They were shooting like they were afraid to miss shots instead of shooting to make them. When that happens, you often get the result of 30-something percent shooting.
Speaking of Hibbert
Pacers coach Frank Vogel is loyal to his players, and really, that's a good trait for a coach to have (we'll have more on Vogel later). Generally, veteran players in the late 20s and early 30s will do what they have always done and when you're trying to coach a team you want to know what you have. The bad news for the Pacers right now is they know what they have in Hibbert and it's not good. I've long been a Hibbert fan and it's been enjoyable to watch him progress over the years. It's been just as painful to watch the obvious regression the past couple of months. He's shooting just 28 percent and averaging 4.7 rebounds in these first three playoff games. And worse yet, he's got zero blocked shots in those games. Yes, Atlanta is spreading the floor and pulling Hibbert out of the lane on defense, but still, zero blocks, that's not what the Pacers are paying him for. Just what happened with Hibbert is hard to say. Maybe it's combination of things. Maybe he gained a little too much muscle  this offseason and he doesn't have the type of quickness he needs to react on defense. Hibbert's never been super quick, but he's been quick enough the past couple of seasons.
Then, too, there's the offensive offense issue. His lack of foot quickness may have caught up to him there as well. A big key to being a good shooter on offense, no matter the position, is footwork, and it's rare to see Hibbert on balance when he takes a shot. The big guys do get those little nudges and subtle shoves that aren't called for fouls and can throw their shot off a bit. But that alone isn't causing 28 percent. The big question now is whether Vogel will start Hibbert in Saturday's game or not. Hibbert certainly doesn't deserve to start with his recent performance. Some say Vogel will lose Hibbert if he doesn't start him. Well, as Bob Dylan once wrote, if you ain't got nothing, you got nothing lose. So no one, not even Hibbert, could blame Vogel for not starting him. However, I think Vogel should start Hibbert on the off chance that Hibbert is at least a factor on offense. Give him the first six or eight minutes and if it's no different than the first three games, then there's no obligation to put him back in.
Speaking of Vogel
A lot of people are saying this is a do or die type of playoffs for Vogel. I'm not going to sit here and say he is perfect by any stretch. I mean when your team can't put the ball in the basket and you've got a guy like Chris Copeland not getting off the bench, you have to wonder. But nonetheless, there are some other things to consider here.
First, Vogel was dealt a significant challenge at midseason when the Pacers acquired Andrew Bynum. It's hard to know if Bynum has played good citizen or not while with the Pacers, But when you bring a such a strong personality like that, who was told not to comeback by his old team, the Cavaliers, the red flag has to go up. Bynum has won a title and made plenty of money, so you do have wonder what his motivation is other than money. While that's speculation, his history suggests him fitting in with what was a tight knit group would be a challenge.
Then, too, Vogel was dealt another challenge with the trade of Danny Granger for Evan Turner. Living in the Philadelphia area, no Sixers fan I have talked to was sorry to see Turner go. It's not that Granger was turning into his former self on the court, he wasn't and he hasn't been for the Clippers either. But the whole combination of bringing in Bynum to what was a supposedly strong lockerroom, and then subtracting one of the strongest character guys from that lockerroom and bringing in Turner maybe that was all just too much. What we do know for sure is that it was all too much to deal with in quick fashion. And no matter what Vogel's future is, team President and Indiana legend Larry Bird has to take some of the blame too. There's no question that Bird made the moves with the pure desire to win. Sometimes these things work and sometimes they don't and unless there's a turnaround in the coming weeks, Bird will have to be responsible for a big part of this too.
So now what?
It's not over yet
In the midst of all this so-called speculation and chaos, if the Pacers go out and win in Saturday afternoon's game in Atlanta, then win at home, things will be better at least for now. And really, it's not a reach at all for that to happen. They just can't stand around though and wait for someone else to do something. Even in this last loss, Luis Scola and Lance Stephenson showed there were ready to at least be active and not afraid to get on the floor for a loose ball. Maybe the rest of the team will join in too. Maybe not.
As the great Don Cannon says, there's three kinds of people in this world: Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen and those who don't know what's happenin'.
If the Pacers pick that middle choice, they'll join most of the rest of the NBA teams in that final category.
It's not too late.
But as Dylan also once wrote, it's not dark yet, but it's getting there.
It remains to be seen if the light can come back on for the Pacers.