Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Just what do Hibbert's blocked shots really mean?


While contemplating the 9-1 Pacers Wednesday night game against the hated New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, like many of the Pacers' opponents, I was thinking about all the shots that Pacers center Roy Hibbert has blocked this season.
He's at 46 blocks 10 games into the season, and hey, even my mathematically challenged mind can come up with the average of 4.6 blocks per game, good for No. 1 in the NBA so far. And yes, while it's still very early in the season, I wondered if Hibbert is able to maintain that average through 82 games this season, where would that put him among the all-time leaders in average blocks per game for a season.
So here are some numbers to think about.
Pacers center Roy Hibbert is averaging
 4.6 blocks  after 10 games this season
First, if Hibbert's numbers do take a dip, and he averages four blocks or more during the season, he will be the first player to do that since Dikembe Mutombo accomplished that feat with the Denver Nuggets during the 1995-96 season when his average was 4.49.
I would say Hibbert has a reasonable chance, let's say 65 percent here, of finishing the season with an average of four blocks or more per game. It will take some work, but also is certainly doable.
So, then, you may or may not ask, when was the last time an NBA player averaged more than 4.5 blocks for a whole season? That would take us to Hakeem Olajuwon who swatted away 4.59 shots per game for the Houston Rockets during the 1989-90 season. And when you get above the 4.50 mark in blocked shots per game in an NBA season, that is pretty rare company. The only players to accomplish that besides Olajuwon are Manute Bol, God rest his soul, with the Washington Bullets during the 1985-86 season at 4.96, Mark Eaton of the Utah Jazz with an NBA record of 5.56 per game during the 1984-85 season and at 4.61 during the 1985-86 season, and Elmore Smith, of the Los Angeles Lakers, at 4.85 during the 1973-74 season, which was also the first season the NBA kept blocked shots as an official statistic.
And so, because of that, we can only guess at what the blocked shot numbers of legends like Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Nate Thurmond would be. It's hard to say exactly what their numbers were in their best years, but for sure, they were each defensive anchors in their primes for their teams.
Former Jazz center Mark Eaton averaged
5.56 blocks during the 1984-85 season.
The blocked shot, at times, can be a bit of a misleading stat because if a player is more concerned about getting blocks than staying in solid defensive and rebounding position, then it can hurt a team's defense. Those of you who watch the Pacers know that'ts not the case with Hibbert. But the one thing the blocked shot, or potential of having your shot blocked, does that cannot be easily measured is it forces teams to take more outside and lower percentage shots. And you know, these days especially, almost no NBA player wants to be part of a Sportscenter highlight where he is the shot blocker's victim. So if there's a good chance of that happening, the smaller player will likely not venture down the lane.
So, yes, all of that plays a part, too, in a team's defense. The Pacers are among the league's best defensive teams again allowing a league low 86.3 points per game and are tied with Chicago for opponents' field goal percentage at .398.
Hibbert isn't the only reason the Pacers' defense has been so stout in recent seasons, but he is a big reason why it has been. The team stats tell us that and his blocked shot numbers send a similar message that at least through 10 games, he's among the best defensive centers we've seen in recent years.

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